New Regional Weather Model To Increase Forecast Accuracy

During the early stages of our severe weather forecasting service, the availability of accessible weather data was significantly limited, relying on just two global models to support our forecast generation. Over the past three to four years, we have progressively expanded our model range to encompass eight diverse options, each offering detailed maps and charts covering the entire globe. The necessity for such a broad array of models is rooted in the understanding that no single model can predict all weather events with absolute precision. By incorporating a variety of models into our forecasting process, we strive to create the most accurate predictions possible.

A recent development includes the inclusion of a regional weather model specifically tailored for New Zealand. Distinguished by its superior resolution, this model portrays wind currents and weather phenomena in a manner that significantly improves our ability to interpret and anticipate the impact of of severe weather with New Zealand's distinctive topographical features in mind.

Below you can see our new regional hi-resolution precipitation map (right) and a low resolution global model (left). Both maps were taken at 12pm 21/06/2024.

It is crucial to understand that the New Zealand regional weather model, although a valuable tool, should not lead us to disregard other models. Each weather model serves a unique purpose. For instance, while long-range forecasts typically rely on models that do not provide high-resolution images, these models are designed to offer insights into the near future. They enable us to identify patterns and possible scenarios, essential for formulating the final stages of our ‘Significant Weather Outlook’. As we approach an event, we turn to high-resolution models like the new regional model to delve deeper and uncover specific trends with greater detail. This enables us to forecast areas at risk more accurately and predict factors like rainfall totals, wind gusts, or snow levels. Such detailed information forms the basis of our maps and written forecasts in the upcoming days for both our outlook and the ‘In-Depth Analysis’ section.

We are super excited to include this new weather model as a crucial part of our continuous pledge to provide the most accurate severe weather forecasts.