Wild Westerlies And Heavy West Coast Rain.

Winter still has another five weeks left by meteorological stand point but spring like weather conditions are upon us this weekend. On Friday westerly trade winds head towards New Zealand driven by a deep low about 961pha in the Southern Ocean. The low drives a large front up to the South Island over the weekend. Intense rainfall is also forecasted for the West Coast of the South Island.

The high is forecasted to remain steady of the the east of New Zealand. With the intense westerly winds pushing against the stable high will create a ‘squeeze zone’ around Canterbury through to Wellington where winds will be the most severe. At this stage we don’t know how strong the winds will be with models still having varied wind speeds. We do however have increased the risk levels as the weather models begin to align. Friday is expected to be when the most intense winds will hit Canterbury especially about the High Country and the surrounding Wellington Region with gusts peaking around 120/km.

The frontal system has arrived, with rain likely becoming persistent overnight Thursday and into Friday for the Western South Island, with heavy falls possible, especially about the ranges but also including the Canterbury and Otago headwaters at times on Friday. Spillover showers are possible in Canterbury but signficant rainfall is not likely.

The frontal system is then forecast to move onto the North Island on Saturday, with heavy falls possible especially about Mount Taranaki and the Tararua Range, the rain is short lived as it clears quickly from the south.

Further rain is expected for the West Coast on Sunday as another front arrives, with heavy falls again possible. For the total event expect over 100mm of rain to accumulate about coastal areas, and over 300mm possible about the Westland ranges.

For further information please head over to our In-Depth Analysis for a closer look and region specific forecasts.